28 Jul · 06:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1351
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sikon
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1374
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.