28 Jul · 07:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇵🇱Dawid Jedrysik
ELO 1345
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1358
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Kaczmarek goes over total as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~82 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.