28 Jul · 08:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇵🇱Maksymilian Rus
ELO 1338
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rus
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1337
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Rus
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H16-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.