28 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1425
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gajda
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1442
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Gajda stays under total as favourite 71% (24)
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.