28 Jul · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1444
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1502
FormWWWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H29-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-20)