28 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1503
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Minda
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1489
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H45-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.