28 Jul · 09:40 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1379
FormLLLWL
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1508
FormWWWWL
36%
64%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~76 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
23%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+129
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+129)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)