28 Jul · 10:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1286
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1346
FormLLWLL
43%
57%
🌟Cesarz goes over total as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~81 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H36-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-12)