28 Jul · 11:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1489
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Perzynski
PP
🇵🇱Przemyslaw Perzynski
ELO 1494
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Perzynski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.