28 Jul · 12:20 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1440
FormWLLLL
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Gajda
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1326
FormLLLLL
62%
38%
🌟Gajda stays under total as favourite 71% (24)
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~79 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
23%
3-2
15%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+114
H2H24-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-8)