28 Jul · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1620
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sklensky
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1657
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
🌟Kapik covers set handicap as underdog 68% (126)
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H16-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.