28 Jul · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1497
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sobel
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1410
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+87
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)