28 Jul · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1427
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1507
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)