28 Jul · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1477
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1497
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 74% · 1.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H36-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.