28 Jul · 15:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1435
FormWLWLL
75%Win chancemodel fair 1.33Wojtaszczyk
WW
🇵🇱Wojciech Wojtaszczyk
ELO 1682
FormWLLWW
25%
75%
Fair odds · Wojtaszczyk
Model 75% · 1.33vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~76 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
10%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+247
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+247)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)