28 Jul · 16:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1443
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1505
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)