28 Jul · 18:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1501
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Marud
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1444
FormWLWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Marud
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H17-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)