28 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1453
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gajda
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1438
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
🌟Gajda stays under total as favourite 71% (24)
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.