28 Jul · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1581
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Koczyba
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1562
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Koczyba stays under total as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H34-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.