28 Jul · 20:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1561
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1582
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H16-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.