28 Jul · 20:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1384
FormLLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Mrugala
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1300
FormLWLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H31-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-25)