28 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1388
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1394
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowalczyk🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H28-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.