28 Jul · 21:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1474
FormWLLLW
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1681
FormLLLWW
29%
71%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~74 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+207
H2H37-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+207)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-15)