28 Jul · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1530
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kaczynski
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1561
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H13-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.