28 Jul · 23:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1319
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marchlewski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1297
FormLLWLL
52%
48%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Marchlewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.