28 Jul · 22:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1502
FormLWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1584
FormWWWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H90-71
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (90-71)