28 Jul · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1383
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1399
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowalczyk🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H29-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.