28 Jul · 23:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1576
FormWLLLW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1685
FormWLLLW
38%
62%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~76 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
15%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H44-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-36)