28 Jul · 23:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1383
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowalczyk
JP
🇵🇱Jacek Przewlocki
ELO 1378
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.