29 Jul · 00:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1322
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1391
FormLWLWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H32-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-25)