29 Jul · 01:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1551
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1590
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H15-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.