29 Jul · 02:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1531
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1583
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H90-72
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (90-72)