29 Jul · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1502
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1522
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.