29 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1373
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1411
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H11-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.