29 Jul · 07:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1554
FormLWWWL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Lebek
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1342
FormLLLLL
72%
28%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~75 pts
3-0
31%
3-1
26%
3-2
15%
2-3
12%
1-3
10%
Elo Gap+212
H2H44-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+212)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-32)