29 Jul · 08:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1519
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Smolka
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1459
FormWWWWL
57%
43%
🌟Juzek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (18)
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H41-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-31)