29 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PZ
🇵🇱Piotr Zemla
ELO 1560
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zemla
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1548
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Zemla
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.