29 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1519
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1496
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.