29 Jul · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1467
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vincenec
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1469
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vincenec🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Vincenec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.