29 Jul · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1562
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1607
FormLWLWW
45%
55%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H42-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)