29 Jul · 11:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1439
FormLWLLW
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1528
FormWWLLW
40%
60%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+89
H2H19-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-13)