29 Jul · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1500
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Minda
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1446
FormWLLLL
56%
44%
🌟Linek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Minda
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H59-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (59-49)