29 Jul · 10:45 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1471
FormWLLLW
62%Win chancemodel fair 1.61Paszkiewicz
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1359
FormWWLLL
62%
38%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 62% · 1.61vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 47%Total ~79 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
23%
3-2
15%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+112
H2H10-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+112)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-5)