29 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1500
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1528
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.