29 Jul · 13:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1368
FormWWLLL
64%Win chancemodel fair 1.56Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1495
FormLLWLL
36%
64%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 64% · 1.56vsMarket 71% · 1.40· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~79 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
23%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+127
H2H20-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+127)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-6)