29 Jul · 13:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1528
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stapor
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1449
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
🌟Linek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (12)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)