29 Jul · 15:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1363
FormLWWLL
73%Win chancemodel fair 1.37Hetnar
KH
🇵🇱Krzysztof Hetnar
ELO 1584
FormLLLWW
27%
73%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek
Fair odds · Hetnar
Model 73% · 1.37vsMarket 84% · 1.19· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~77 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+221
H2H53-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+221)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (53-3)