29 Jul · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1534
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stapor
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1511
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 37% · 2.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.