29 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1511
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1509
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.