29 Jul · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1467
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1509
FormLWWLL
45%
55%
🌟Juzek stays under total as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H42-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-31)